Economic Evaluation of Bivalves in Egypt: A Potential for Aquaculture Production

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Animal Wealth Development, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia 41522, Egypt

2 1-Department of Animal Wealth Development, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Suez canal university. 2- Agricultural Economics Department, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Abstract

This study investigates how landing sites (Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and Bitter Lakes) and temporal trends affect bivalve production quantity (tons) in Egypt over an eleven-year period (2009–2019). Also, to forecast bivalves’ production to investigate investment opportunities in this sector. Data were obtained from official national records, including the General Authority for Fish Resources Development (GAFRD) and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). A mixed effects model (MEM) was used to evaluate regional differences and time effects on production. Results revealed that region was a significant determinant of bivalve production, with the Mediterranean Sea demonstrating notable growth, while Bitter Lakes and the Red Sea remained stable. To forecast future production, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted separately for each region. ARIMA projections indicated a potential production decline in the Mediterranean region despite its past growth, whereas Bitter Lakes maintained steady output, and the Red Sea exhibited persistently low production levels. It is concluded that integrating MEM and ARIMA methodologies provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and forecasting bivalve production, informing resource management and policy decisions. The findings underscore the importance of site-specific fisheries management and suggest that adaptive strategies may be required to sustain growth in the Mediterranean region, maintain stability in Bitter Lakes, restore bivalves’ population, and explore alternative economic activities for the Red Sea. Many bivalves are adapted to the Egyptian fisheries which suggests the high potential for aquaculture production

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