Economic Evaluation of Bivalves in Egypt: A Potential for Aquaculture Production

Mandour, Mostafa; Sebaq, Mohamed; Hassan, Rania A.

doi:10.21608/scvmj.2025.373749.1197

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	Economic Evaluation of Bivalves in Egypt: A Potential for Aquaculture Production
Article 82, Volume 30, Issue 1, June 2025, Page 119-129
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.21608/scvmj.2025.373749.1197
View on SCiNiTO
Authors
Mostafa Mandour¹; Mohamed Sebaq ²; Rania A. Hassan¹
¹Department of Animal Wealth Development, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia 41522, Egypt
²1-Department of Animal Wealth Development, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Suez canal university. 2- Agricultural Economics Department, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Abstract
This study investigates how landing sites (Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and Bitter Lakes) and temporal trends affect bivalve production quantity (tons) in Egypt over an eleven-year period (2009–2019). Also, to forecast bivalves’ production to investigate investment opportunities in this sector. Data were obtained from official national records, including the General Authority for Fish Resources Development (GAFRD) and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). A mixed effects model (MEM) was used to evaluate regional differences and time effects on production. Results revealed that region was a significant determinant of bivalve production, with the Mediterranean Sea demonstrating notable growth, while Bitter Lakes and the Red Sea remained stable. To forecast future production, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted separately for each region. ARIMA projections indicated a potential production decline in the Mediterranean region despite its past growth, whereas Bitter Lakes maintained steady output, and the Red Sea exhibited persistently low production levels. It is concluded that integrating MEM and ARIMA methodologies provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and forecasting bivalve production, informing resource management and policy decisions. The findings underscore the importance of site-specific fisheries management and suggest that adaptive strategies may be required to sustain growth in the Mediterranean region, maintain stability in Bitter Lakes, restore bivalves’ population, and explore alternative economic activities for the Red Sea. Many bivalves are adapted to the Egyptian fisheries which suggests the high potential for aquaculture production
Keywords
Aquaculture; Bivalves; Mixed effects model
Main Subjects
Veterinary Economics


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